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nitekrawler1285 on 21 July 2014
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Rafux said:
nitekrawler1285 said:
The biggest reason I don't expect PS4 to go past 100 million is it's software library.

With all titles less than AAA being given the digital treatment It's going to lose much awareness about it's library as well as the appearance of variety in said library.

larger 3rd party titles appeal is rather narrow. As in almost everything is targeted at the core gamer. Even NPD will tell you there are only 32 million of them. Combine the sales of PS4/X1 and and we have about half of them. Beyond them I just don't see whom 99% of these games are supposed to appeal to.

Tablets and phones are already good enough for mainstream consumers and offer more flexibility in use for the same and less price than PS4 even when it's finally at 299. Those platforms will have more exclusives too. Soon 3rd parties will abandon even home consoles to mobile because less costly risks with better possible payoffs.

So in short. More software will be needed than I believe Sony and 3rd parties can provide due to how long it takes to make new AAA games. They also need software for people whom aren't core gamers which Sony nor 3rd parties are motivated to provide. They also need mid sized titles at retail to appeal to more consumers. We know Sony isn't going to be making those and I doubt most 3rd parties want mid sized titles more so blockbusters so I don't know where that will come from.

It seems like you know everything, like how only "core games" will be released from here on and how all AAA games will take more years to develop than before even more than when devs took the transition to HD gaming. Mobile gaming has never been a treat to home consoles and won't steal any exclusive, are you expecting GTA or Mortal Kombat exclusive on cell phones? how about FIFA 15?

Sony always delivers on games, is like 2007 all over again.

Core games are what the large 3rd party industry developers want to make.  They irrationally exclude developing on the Wii while it crushed the competition specifically because they don't want to make other kinds of games.  Nintendo destroys their business because they don't want to make other types of games.  Why should I expect them to want to make those other kinds of games now until forced by market reality?

Why are so many Next gen games getting delayed if this process is so simple?  Why are they trying to make more money back on what were in some cases unsuccessful attemps such as TR or maximize profits in case of TLoU?  Because it's expensive and takes  along time make titles ground up for the new consoles.  Japan didn't take to HD gaming at all.  

Easier money to the people who makes games is a HUGE threat.  It's why iOS has so many developers and so much exclusive software.  As the rewards for one continue to rise while the others don't it's more likely attention will shift.   As Japanese developers raise the price of apps there will be serious ramifications when other publishers catch on to the practice.  A 40 dollar app gives $28 when a $60 console game might bring in $27.  70% vs 45% 

To drive home the bolded.  The certification process is much faster or non existant for that app or free. On consoles that can cost tens of thousands of dollars.   Developer fees for iOS are $99 a year. Because of for the time lower resolution and specs the games cost less to make.  Larger peice of the pie for sooooo much less work.  Go look at the top 100 on either store and you already see alot of very familiar IPs from familiar publishers. EA and SE being two large players .  

Let's face it. Sony, MS and Nintendo dont have the best ecosystem today for development and require costly ventures. That isn't sustainable but for a very select few and maybe not even then.  It can't, wont , and isn't being ignored.  I don't see how cutting out the mid market is gonna do anything to help sales.  It's now a completely up market industry.