Why I don't think the PS4 will pass 100m

[binary solo]

freedquaker said:

SocialistSlayer said:

binary solo said:
I prefer the underestimating predictions to the ridiculousness that was Wii going to sell 300 million back in 2008.

I doubt PS4 will sell 100 million. But if the 360/PS3 install base is relatively static then PS4 taking 40% or more of Xb360's install base could mean PS4 cracking 100 million. But it is interesting that the PS/Xbox install base is trending downwards. PS2+Xb>PS3360. So if that's a real trend then PS4bone
180million-->170million-->160million? If PS4bone is going to combine to 160 million, which is a 10 million shrink from last gen, then it's not too much of a stretch to see the breakdown being PS4 100 million Xb one 60 million. But I think Xb one is on target to sell less than 50 million (but probably more than 30 million), which would either put combined sales at significantly less than 160 million, or PS4 at significantly more than 100 million.

well PS2+ XB1 ~ 180 million units lifetime

so far PS3+ X360 ~ 165 million and still selling

I easily see 15+ million more sales between them, and as much as 25 million more

so really it looks as if they will finish somewhere between 180 - 190 million consoles sold.

so if anything it grew last gen.

though i do think the gen will sell max 190 million. minimum 150 million

The perspective here is not wrong but you're missing something. Nintendo is way weaker than it used to be, so obviously

PS4 + XB1 will be greater than PS3 + X360

 

Assuming the market will shrink from 260 million over 7 years (PS3 + X360 + Wii) to 200 million (PS4 + XB1 + WiiU) and PS4 will get at least 55% of this (currently at 45% and counting although started 1 year after Nintendo), the minimum sales estimate for PS4 is 110 million.

That's not at all obvious. Wii install base can be split into 4 categories:

1. Multi-generation Nintendo fans these people will buy Wii U in preference to PS4bone

2. "Blue ocean" who only bought Wii. Some of these will buy Wii U but not many by the look of things, and almost none will go for PS4bone because if they aren't getting Wii U chances are the stopped playing Wii a few years before Wii U came out.

3. PS2 owners from gen 6 who went for Wii exclusively. I think this is a tiny % of Wii buyers because most of the people who rejected PS3 went with 360, hence 360's massive GoG growth.

4. "Blue ocean" who upgrade late in the generation to PS3, and more significantly 360 when Kinect came out.

Category 2 and 4 account for the largest proportion of what will be the difference between Wii and Wii U sales when the generation is done. Category 4 is already accounted in the PS360 install base so can;t be a source of GoG growth for PS4bone. Category 2 has almost all left console gaming aside from the ones who will buy Wii U.

In terms of ongoing sales of PS360. I think a combined 6 million this year (of which 2.9 million already sold) and a combined 4 million next year. 360 will end at the end of 2015. PS3 might eek out another 2 million in 2016. So sales from here until the end of PS360 I think might get to 10 million. So PS360 I think will top out at 175 million.

Interesting thing is that while PS2 was on the market for 10 years, the sales years for gen 6 between PS2 and Xb is 14 years (Xb only on sale for 4 years), and the sales years for PS360 is going to be about 18 years.