Why I don't think the PS4 will pass 100m

[freedquaker]

SocialistSlayer said:

binary solo said:
I prefer the underestimating predictions to the ridiculousness that was Wii going to sell 300 million back in 2008.

I doubt PS4 will sell 100 million. But if the 360/PS3 install base is relatively static then PS4 taking 40% or more of Xb360's install base could mean PS4 cracking 100 million. But it is interesting that the PS/Xbox install base is trending downwards. PS2+Xb>PS3360. So if that's a real trend then PS4bone
180million-->170million-->160million? If PS4bone is going to combine to 160 million, which is a 10 million shrink from last gen, then it's not too much of a stretch to see the breakdown being PS4 100 million Xb one 60 million. But I think Xb one is on target to sell less than 50 million (but probably more than 30 million), which would either put combined sales at significantly less than 160 million, or PS4 at significantly more than 100 million.

well PS2+ XB1 ~ 180 million units lifetime

so far PS3+ X360 ~ 165 million and still selling

I easily see 15+ million more sales between them, and as much as 25 million more

so really it looks as if they will finish somewhere between 180 - 190 million consoles sold.

so if anything it grew last gen.

though i do think the gen will sell max 190 million. minimum 150 million

The perspective here is not wrong but you're missing something. Nintendo is way weaker than it used to be, so obviously

PS4 + XB1 will be greater than PS3 + X360

 

Assuming the market will shrink from 260 million over 7 years (PS3 + X360 + Wii) to 200 million (PS4 + XB1 + WiiU) and PS4 will get at least 55% of this (currently at 45% and counting although started 1 year after Nintendo), the minimum sales estimate for PS4 is 110 million.