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Wii will go its own route with parental controls, maybe copy Microsofts acheivements thing. Eventually getting rid of the friend codes (hopefully). It will evolve slowly, and surely.

Microsoft will always be the leader of the online race. They are the PC people, and they have a rep to uphold. They aren't gonna screw that up. If they do it will only be out of luck and probably wont last that long.

I am not going to mention Sony because my opinion of them is pretty biased.