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To me it really depends on whether Sony can make any serious inroads into the developing economies, such as China, South Korea and Eastern Europe.. They are becoming more and more affluent, and though they are heavily into PC gaming at the moment (mainly due to piracy), if Sony can market it right then they could make up for the expected contraction in Japan.

We are living in a growing global economy, even if consoles share of the global entertainment pie shrinks, the pie itself is still growing, allowing this gen to remain similar in size to previous one.