jlmurph2 said:
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Well, first off, it's great that VGC is getting much more accurate with XOne numbers. Only undertracking it by less than 10% after months of serious overtracking. It seems that the tweaking of inputs has worked, the guy (ioi) knows his job. Unfortunately, his PS4 numbers went out of whack, undertracking it by an uncomfortable margin. Hopefully, that will get fixed soon, so we can have a lot of fun accurately analyzing weekly numbers once the busy season comes along.
All this undertracking left the illusion that two consoles are neck and neck, when the fact is that PS4 outselling XOne by some 35-40% on a weekly basis, and that in a month of Kinect "execution", and the month in which many claimed that all those people holding out for price reduction in May will help XOne to the top of the charts.
It certainly seems that the number of people is not that high, as the US consumers continue to lose confidence in Microsoft's console. Not surprising, because the console has been stripped clean of all the advertised features. Looking back at the reveal:
Kinect - dead,
Television - dead,
Sports - dead. This one not as much, but the announcement of $400M investment in the NFL deal certainly seemed like XOne is getting some exclusivity. It turned out the investment was mainly paid advertisements for Surface, while NFL is available equally on both consoles (http://www.joystiq.com/2014/07/17/nfl-sunday-ticket-streaming-on-playstation-xbox-platforms-this/)
Games - weaker, scarcer, and other that a few MS staple brands completely lacking in name/brand recognition.
Hardware - weaker, filled with micro-transactions increasing the entry price (batteries, chargers, adapters...)
I never once said "Doom", except in obvious jokes for all systems equally. But I've always considered XOne to be Microsoft's swan song. From their plan to have it last for 10 years, from their expectations to be a market leader in a billion (!) unit sold industry, it was certain that the console was made to be an end-all to console gaming.
Of course, it's insane to believe that Microsoft will suddenly pull the plug. They are pulling it gradually, and will sustain XOne for at least 3-4 years to come. That's a reasonable period, as we will see their cornerstone IPs move more toward casual/mobile gaming (Halo: Spartan Assault style), and the history has shown that they refuse to give long-term software support even when they are winning.
I believe Microsoft will remain a very powerful software/services company, as is their plan. They will always remain a profitable and dominating force. But they were always a mediocre hardware company, focusing mostly on pecking crumbs off the competition's table.
They tried to muscle in on Apple's iPod business, they failed.
They are trying to muscle in on Google's and Apple's mobile phone OS business, they are a distant third with no hope of ever getting even closer. They sunk a lot of money in Nokia, only prolonging its agony, I see them divesting it within 5 years when they fail to show any progress.
They are trying to muscle in on the tablet business hopelessly.
The only reason they were able to muscle Sony out of half of console market is Sony. I think Microsoft basically lucked out by the opponent's obliviousness. But the same way they stripped Sony of 50% of its customers, so will they now be extatic to retain 50% of their customers. XBox has basically dropped to only two system selling titles (Halo and Gears of War), and those titles are managing only to sell systems to the already existing fan base, which seems to be shrinking by each iterration of the title.
In the end, sure, 200K in a month of continuing 180s would be considered good, had the competition not sold 35% more consoles by basically doing nothing but providing stock. By being outsold by almost 50% this year in its only viable market, Microsoft and XBox are showing that they will not be able to stand ground to the competition.
