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MoHasanie said:

I'm sort of agreeing with your opinion but you're leaving out the possibilty that Russia supplied the rebels with all that equipment. Afterall, the rebels did shoot down 2 cargo planes last week.

Well, for that Russia should have supplied Buks with a crew as well, and it doesn't explain motives (9 chances out of 10 the incident will be blamed in Russia publicly regardless the investigation). Nah, I'd trust Occam here, unless proven wrong.

Il-76 was shot when nearly landed if that's what you mean. First An-26 wasn't cargo, it was artillery observer plane that went down for that purpose a bit too low and was shot down. The most recent An-26 was cargo, but I'm not sure how it was shot down. 4km altitude is what rebels could possibly afford for now.