| Burek said: So, VGC again overtracked XOne. But this time by some 20K, so only about 12% error. It certainly seems ioi tweaked the algorhythm, and it's working. And this most certainly is damage control, get NPD out of the way a day early, and start working on the next month's statement (4 weeks of summer doldrums). They'll return to 77K again... |
I don't know if 77k is a reasonable expectation.
thinking on it a bit, 32k/week is June (assuming the numbers are close to 160kish), and that's 10% above their April weeklies. However, those averages must take into account the limited sales bubble of the $399 SKU availability. So the numbers are very likely (nay, certainly?) weighted by that one week buffing the others a lot when you divide by 5 weeks.
Let's say the $399 SKU week boosted sales by an extra 40-50k that week (split the difference and call it 45k that had waited through May to buy it basically on launch). Subtract 45k from 160k, and you have 115k. What does that bring us? Right back to the April baseline. Now from there, you might adjust for seasonal trends, but I don't expect as low as 77k I don't think. But back down to ~28k/week or even a bit below sounds right.
If you put my hands to the fire and made me predict XB1 for July, I'd put it at 117k. I'm feeling generous.
