According to a marketing book I've studied some time ago, I'd say while the ps4 will definetly last longer due to 3rd party support and stay #1 this gen, its sales curve will likely look closer to the Wii in a few years compared to 360 and Ps3.
360 and Ps3 are "tecnology pushed" products, they've introducted HD gaming.
They needed a more time to penetrate the matket since consumers had to learn the benefits of HD. On the plus side these kind of products tend to do better in their later stages and have a longer life cycle.
On the other hand Wii and Ps4 are "demand pulled" products. These products have the peculiarity to awnser an existing cosumer need or desire (which could be apparent or hidden), so they tend to have a great success on launch, to reach their prime very soon but than to also fade away much sooner.
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