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I don't see it being remotely possible. Last gen was an anomaly, further proof of that is how the "market leading" platform were the first to jump into the new gen. That has never happened before. You are right on your prediction, max 180M-200M. But that is in no way a bad thing in my opinion.

When people talk sales I think they forget whats really important, the software. I think a better estimation of a platforms or maybe even a generations success should be by the total amount of software sold.