DerNebel said:
Just some short points 1. The 3rd/4th year is generally the height of a consoles life, the decline that the 3DS is experiencing is not normal and can be attributed to the second point 2. By the end of 2011 the 3DS was already retailing for $170, you know what that did? It changed the sales curve, it made people buy the thing way earlier then they normally would have. That can be seen especially in Japan. 3. The PS4 will not stay at approximately 100k/week until November, Fifa and Destiny alone should give the system decent/huge boosts. Also 3.4mil this holiday for the PS4? It will easily do more than that. You can expect the PS4 to stand at around 15mil by the end of the year. 4. It doesn't matter when the 3DS stops selling, what matters is the amount the 3DS will manage to sell, a number you kinda forget to estimate, I personally say it will not beat 80mil. 5. To compare the PS4 to those other systems first year just by their sales numbers is forgetting a lot of important side information, like price or games. The PS4 is still $400 and it is quite often lovingly said that it has "no gaemz". What do you think is going to happen if those things change? |
1. Yes, the 3DS peaked in its 3rd year. And the only direction it can go from peaking is down. It is still selling around the same weekly as the PS4, and likely will for a while.
2. $170 for a handheld does not translate as $170 for a home console. The demand curve for a home console is likely much more inelastic than that of a handheld. That means it responds less to differences in prices than a handheld will (the difference in price must be greater.) At $170 a PS4 would likely sell a lot, but not even PS3's sell for $170 new (unless you adjust for bundled games) these days. So it is unreasonable to compare it 1:1. $170 is a lot for a handheld, just like $400 is a lot for a home console.
3. Still, that is only 2 mil more than the 3DS' first year, and that is with two holidays, not one.
4. 80 mil sounds reasonable to me. The question is, will the PS4 sell 100 million though, and I just don't think it will. The market (as a whole) is in a decline and has more external competition this time around (PC gaming; Mobile gaming.) Again, we must have faith that the PS4's legs will be long, and it is based on precedent, yes, but in order for that to happen developers need to release many different types of games that appeal to a variety of people (along the lines of PS2, Wii, DS.) PS4 seems to be much more like the PS1 in that it very much appeals to a certain group of people so much so that all people in that group want a PS4, but the consequence of this is a lower saturation point. I can see the PS4 and 3DS ending somewhere close, with PS4 having more potential I suppose. But who knows, maybe the PS4 will have the mainstream appeal that gives it its legs.
5. If adjusted for inflation, the PS2 would have been $401.65, the PS1 $453.86, the Wii $286.84. I won't compare handhelds though. All PS consoles started out with weak game libraries, from what I recall. PS4 started ahead of all of these consoles with its launch, and now is dipping far below. The issue isn't whether or not it will get games, but when it will get the games. The sooner the more Sony can remove much of the competition by maintain momentum.
