Nope.... what is killing the industry isn't that AAA games are actually really big or shooter heavy. Its that they have AAA marketing budgets.
The gaming industry is in a constant summer movie blockbuster flux. If you want a game to sell very well? there are two ways to do it, start with low expectations and build the IP over the course of 2 or 3 really good iterations of the IP or go big and throw $100 worth of marketing money at it.
Mind you, this doesn't always work.