| dyremose said: I think north america will become even. Maybe up to 5 k weekly in favor of xbox one Europe will hardly be any different. 1st week spike will not be as massive as some would think. Im predicting a 100k on week 1 and will then fall down to a steady 75k weekly provided no major exclusives is at play |
Why would that happen when Gamestop and Amazon show terrible sales for the new $399 SKU? What could possibly change other than a massive price cut to $299? Even at $349 with a free game I think XB1 would at best come within 10-15% of monthly sales in the US, and if they did get that close, Sony would probably move to $349 as well, negating the effect completely.
XB1 has lost the gen, but it will take a while for certain people to 'get' that. Comparisons to PS3 make no sense, as the 'turnaround' was an illusion. Selling more in garbage time doesn't make a comeback. The only reason PS3 looks good by the numbers is because they won Europe/Asia handily. That is literally impossible for XB1, in fact the XB1 is losing outside of the US/UK FAR more than the 360 did. They went from mediocre sales abroad to horrendous, pull-the-plug level of failure.
Even if magically XB1 could come even with the PS4 in the US/UK, they would still lose massively on the global numbers. The fact that they've even managed to lose in the US/UK (yes, even considering the $399 SKU, look at the sales charts of Amazon, Gamestop, and Best Buy if you don't believe me), means they're headed for 30-35M lifetime sales, 40M if they're extremely lucky. And for their ambitions and the way they approach the console business, 30-40M is an absolute disaster. Their economic system of scale doesn't work unless the numbers are 360-like or bigger. The whole idea was to put a microsoft cash printing press into every home, paywalling every entertainment transaction along the way, controlling music, tv, movies, apps, and games, getting a cut of it all. And that has utterly fallen apart, not only are the paywalls rejected and scuttled, but their install base will be less than half of what they expected. Combine that with the ludicrous expenses of R&D and advertising for a flagship console (and the exhorbitant Western corporate salaries for all the stuffed suits), and you have the makings of a true 21st century business disaster of gargantuan proportions.
This is certainly Microsoft's final console, and when the true numbers start to get back to the board and investors, the question then will become how long they put any money at all into the sinking ship. We can start to expect cancelled projects, and one by one distribution to less successful markets will be pulled. Europe 2014 will look like X360 Japan circa 2012. And like dominoes, we will see the same in the US come 2016 or so barring a miracle. Microsoft isn't built for a 2nd/3rd place US market placement. They weren't shooting for a niche. XB OG was to get their foot in the door, X360 was a loss leader to gain the dominant foothold in the US, and XB1 was supposed to be the shining profit machine they had spent a decade+ working towards, only to have it blow up in their face in a legendarily way that's both sad and hilarious.
