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No, it will do terribly in Japan. Nobody has large amounts of free time to spend with a deep console game. Everyone has moved to handhelds. The sole home console to have any impact is the WiiU, and that only sells the huge franchises. Seriously I feel like nobody follows the charts there but myself and a few others.

Ps3 is on life support despite 10m+ install base.
360 is deader than dead and utterly destroyed the Xbox brand beyond repair.
Ps4 is fundamentally DOA not because it has no desired Japanese games, but because nobody wants it, they're not even playing their ps3s, which have tons of Japanese market titles.
Xb1 is going to be a disaster there beyond all history. I could easily see them selling in the 4 digit range week 1. Japanese consumers like sleek and compact devices, and the massive 1980s VCR style box is going to be a laughingstock. It boggles the mind that they are even bothering.