| coolestguyever said: Isn't Ninty making 1.8 million consoles per month? if I'm right that would mean from April-December they will make 16.2 Million consoles. Add the current 23.06 million to 16.2 million and you get 39.26 million which is the maximum assuming the wii sells every single console it makes (which I doubt). So unless they increase production your 40+ million predictions are literally/mathematically impossible. I say the wii ends up with about 32-26 Million end of year. |
You are not taking into account the time it takes to get a produced console onto the shelf, the consoles that were made about six weeks ago are probably only now getting to the shop shelves.... So what you should say is 20.13 (shipped before 2008) and add that to ten and a half months of production, which comes out to 39.03 million.
However that doesn't take into account any air-shipping if Nintendo needs to do so once more, and if they need to do that then you can take 4 weeks off that shipping time, and thus add 1.8 million more, making 40.83.
Then take into account any stock left on shelves and the total sales should make just over 40 million if supply/demand situation is similar to last year.
So basically, the minimum for sales with current demand and production is 40 million.
If demand drops (which it shows no signs of) then Nintendo might not air-ship supply and the shipped number would equal only 39.03 million, and the shelf stock might be at maximum 1.5 million, making 37.5 million sales
For the total sales to be any lower than 37.5 million demand should have already shown signs of slowing, because demand does not drop as quickly as leo-j is hoping.
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Of course if Nintendo announces a production increase before 2009 then that number only gets bigger, but 37.5 million is a reasonable minimum of sales.... anyone being pessimistic but still wanting to be realistic would have to say 37.5 million., because that is the absolute worst case scenario.
(edited for logical inconsistencies and typing errors)
