When Will PS4 Double Xbox One?

[freedquaker]

before 2015, probably between the Black Friday and end of the year.

 

Below is a NON-LINEAR REGRESSION ESTIMATE

 

The regression (estimate) above tells us that the PS4/XB1 ratio will hit 1.9 by the end of the year, and therefore 2015 is the year when PS4 will actually double the XB1. However, that simple analysis above fails to take into account two facts:

a) Black Friday-Christmas period (and generally the last quarter) is a very fast paced period, which will accelerate the process.

b) The new XB1 policies, pricing, and exclusives are likely to give XB1 a boost in some territories, probably reversing the scenario.

 

The net effect is not clear. As per my original predictions, the PS4 will be close to 2x XB1 at the end of this year, if not already above it. In either case, september is technically too optimistic. This is funny because a LINEAR (and technically wrong) estimate makes exactly the same estimate of doubling (September 20th to be specific). This shows the "optimism bias" in people's minds (at least ps4 supporters) and also how the wrong application of science may mislead people.