RolStoppable said:
Arkaign said:
Because I do believe that it will. I think a lot of XB1 sales will come towards the latter part of the gen when it's cheaper. A lot of PS4-only players will pick one up as second systems to play the great exclusives they missed out on. A lot of the casuals that make respectable targets for XB1 customers also won't leap until the thing is $249/$199 kind of price as well (keep in mind MILLIONS of these 7th gen consoles were sold in the past 12-24 months alone, and likely these 'value/casual' customers aren't jumping to 8G for a good while yet).
So yeah : PS4 heavy advantage through 2015, but then I think the PS4 will decel a bit and the monthly gaps will get smaller, especially in the US. With the right moneyhatted exclusives and hyped stuff, they might even take a month or two here and there in the scrappy mid to late years of the gen.
Once the most dedicated gamers already have their console of choice (which so far has been nearly 2:1 in favor of PS4), as time goes by these very same poeple are more and more likely to have a few hundred bucks burning a hole in their pockets wanting to grab another console for an instant backlog of great titles. This could potentially be a silver lining for the XB1 in my opinion.
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So you don't really believe in installed bases snowballing, even though the PS4 and X1 are clearly substitutes for each other.
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Yes I absolutely do in terms of primary consoles for online players, the kind of people who talk about games, who spend $399 on a flagship console, and who are the first couple years of buyers in sizable numbers. Those kinds of people are definitely influenced to a fair degree by what the consensus is of where they should jump first.
But those very same people can be brought back to the market eventually to pick up a companion console. Tons of people that were 360 only bought PS3s late this gen to play desired exclusives. And I personally know a number of PS3 and/or Wii only folks who jumped to 360 when a favorite title emerged there.
The two are not mutually exclusive. Essentially installed base snowballing = 1st tier, second console buyers = overflow for people ready for a new set of experiences in addition to their mainline platform.
