cleveland124 said:
That was what I was trying to get at. I buy 90% of my things online. If it wasn't for games, I'd probably buy no pleasure purchases at the store as my wife does the grocery shopping and I only buy clothes when I absolutely need them. However, here is my question, that I pretty much asked in another thread. Let's assume away all problems of digital distribution. Assume bandwidth is unlimited, assume people don't care if they don't actually own a physical copy, assume Microsoft and Sony release IP machines next generation with massive hard drives. Then let's say Nintendo basically makes a Wii HD. You can even assume that Microsoft and Sony's machines are cheap. The question I have is, would Nintendo's console fail? It certainly wouldn't put up Wii 1 numbers but is it possible for it to do worse than the gamecube? In my mind I think there will always be a console market. And if there is one stores will have games for them. Will they have decreasing space for them? Probably. But when I look at most retailers (Wal-mart included) I see tons of wasted space. If they were really that concerned over what at most stores is a few cases 3 feet wide by 5 foot long then they need to do a complete store overhaul. |
You, then, are already there where the majority of consumers are projected to be at some point in the not so distant future. And that is going to be the biggest revolution in distribution/retail channels of the modern age. The whole concept of the brick-and-mortar store has to be rethought as the new generation of consumers brings about new kind of buying behaviour.
About your question, am I right to assume that the Wii HD would not be able to download games, or that it at least would not be the main mode of distributing them? Because, at the heart of things is this: the whole traditional mode of distribution is undergoing a revolution as we speak. In the "good ole days" you had a three tiered (or, in some cases 3.5) distribution chain: manufacturer -> distributor -> (rep) -> dealer/retail. What is happening now is that retail is bypassing the distributors and going straight to manufacturer, thus eliminating one step from the overall margin structure. This means they can sell at a lower price than those dealers who buy from distributors, and this is why so many of the small speciality stores are bleeding to death now. The big thing in digital distribution is not the distribution media itself, it is the fact that manufacturers bypass the distribution chain altogether and get direct access to the end customers. This, in turn, means they can sell at a lower price AND get better margins, and, let's face it, consumer markets are highly price sensitive. The lower price of digital distribution is what will drive its adoption.
Now, back to your question: I do not think that the mode of distribution of games is what will make or break a console. The price of the games does play a role, but how big a role, that I can not say. Wii games are cheaper than PS3/X360 games, but it's damn near impossible to know how much it affects the sales. Now, if you assume that PS4/X720 and Wii HD are otherwise close to equal in performance, with the Wii HD lacking digital distribution, that would mean it is at a disadvantage due to higher priced games. But in reality there are so many factors that come into play that it is impossible to say what would happen. But to answer your question: sure, Wii HD could do worse than GC, anything is possible.
