If they show an awesome looking Zelda for 2015, a fun new IP for this year, and a more finished X releasing in 2014, - along with some other good stuff - they at least tie or probably beat MS.
If the new IP they show is amazing, they have another new IP as well, they reveal a Mistwalker RPG, another good third party title/partnership, Metroid, a new GCHD title or anything else shocking or awesome, they most likely win or dominate the conference.