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Twilord on 08 June 2014
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Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Twilord said:

The Wii-U has Mario Kart and Smash Bros - THIS YEAR. Those are traditionally two of the most important titles of any generation for almost any Nintendo fan or multi-console owner. I'm not saying the PS4 is gonna do shitty, I'm saying that the Wii-U is about to have its most badass year while the PS4 is probably gonna have its best year next year. 

Multiplatform titles are obviously very important, but they're gonna mean FAR less for system sales when they're also available on last gen consoles after the hype settles and people can finally take a good look at the newborn twins. I suspect the PS4 will still sell alot but don't under-estimate the sales power of what Nintendo is offering - lets assume Mario Kart only sells 2 million Wii-U's over the year (despite the outrageous deal on offer and the game's history of spreading by word of mouth); lets assume that Smash Bros can only pull off the same despite its new-found willingness to work for and with its insanely dedicated fanbase; that still leaves any combination of X, Bayonetta, Yarn Yoshi, FExSMT, Sonic Boom, Hyrule Warriors AND general sales to carry it for another 2 million. 

As you can tell by my mathes here, I was being pretty god-damned restrained with my estimates. Especially when you consider that in order to sell that ammount the PS4 would need to maintain the high it has gotten from the uber-hyped Watch_Dogs, which is FAAAR more likely to only last the week you predicted.

  

The PS4 outsells all other consoles globally on its base alone. Everytime it gets a multiplat, it gets a boost significant enough to counter the Wii U's arguably biggest game. 

Just because MK8 is succesful, Nintendo fans now think that their games will save them. Basic Pattern recognition tells you that only one of those games you listed will come close to outselling 3DWorld let alone catching up to MK8.


You're right that only Smash Bros will be the only one to come close to Mario Kart on its own (though I think its much more passionate fanbase garauntee that if Mario Kart only get the 2 million consoles sold in the worst case scenario that Smash Bros will out perform it). Also, I'm using the example of how the Wii-U sold last year (around three million) and suggesting it would only sell 2 million between all the other titles slated for next year. I'm being very restrained here with the Wii-U and being very generous to the PS4 at the same time.

Your logic basically amounts to the idea that since the PS4 is outselling the Wii-U up until now the PS4 will always outsell the Wii-U. There is probably some latin debate fallacy term that explains why that is utter nonsense and a variation of trying to presume the relative charting of two figures is a constant thanks to apophenia born from an insufficient sample size but I'm afraid I don't know it, so could someone please tell me it for use later if this debate continues any longer than it needs to? Trying to articulate that point is a chore.