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One question is whether you prefer games on disc or digitally.
If you plan buying discs, with just an o casional PSN purchase, 500GB will be plenty enough.
If you plan going full digital, it would be wise to upgrade to 1TB out of the box, Seagate SSHD is very affordable and reliable. With that, you will probably be able to store 40-80 games on your HD, surely you don't plan to play all of them at the same time...