Now the Wii has a AAA killer ap core gamer's game in Brawl, I really don't see how you can say that the Wii is only selling to casuals. I would say that in 07 casuals made up a larger majority of total Wii sales. In 07 only Hardcore nintendo gamers, early adopters, and casuals were buying the Wii. Gamers for the most part were not. TP was really the only good game for gamers on the Wii for its first 10 months(until MP3), and gamers could play that on a Cube. I believe SMG really changed this and SSBB(In a HUGE way) will continue to bring "real" gamers onto the Wii.
The best way to look at this is look at the sales of TP. TP is selling better now than it was 1 year ago... tell me how that is happening.
2 things are possible
1. Casuals are looking for deeping gaming experiances
2. Gamers are migrating to the Wii
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut
