- PS4 100-110M
- XBO 60-70M
- WiiU 25-35M
Here's my reasoning
PS4
Last gen, coming in a year late and being $200 more expensive than its immediate competition, losing almost 40% of its market share in NA, it still managed to sell 80ml consoles and ultimately edged out the 360 in global sales. Having done everything right so far this gen it means that anyone that bought a PS3 (and is in the market for a console) has no reason to not want to get a PS4. So most of that install base is carried over. It also means that those that got a 360 because it was either the cheapest/games ran better on it and have no loyalties to any platform will be getting a PS4 too. And the neutrals, those that buy more than one console and has no loyalties to anyone, will also be getting a PS4.
XBO
They are currently losing in their strongest territory. Not by much but they are losing. At best, they would match the sales of PS4 in NA, i personally don't see that happening but stranger things have. Contrary to what most dismiss, teher isn't another RROD to buff sales of the XBO. Just imagine how many of the 80M 360 sales were due to the 33.3% of ROD victims that rather than replace but just bought another console. Indication of this is by looking at sales of games like COD in NA. The 360 outsold the PS3 by nearly 2:1 in NA, but yet it never had up to a 50% markup in platform sales of games like COD on it. Which tells you that it doesn't really have twice the number of active console owners as the sales would have suggested. Then there is europ and rest of the world. And the XBO is currently losing that battle woefully, even more so than they did last gen. And its non existent in Japan. I expect around 70% of all XBO sales to come from NA. And being that the 360 sold 46M there last gen while being the "favoured/better" console, I think its actually generous this gen assuming it would sell up to 40M in NA alone.
WiiU
The gamecube, that was the last time nintendo made a console that would appeal to the core gamer. We are talking about the kinda people that can buy over 10 games each year. However, even then nintendo was plauged by its third party bad blood.That console sold around 23M worldwide. The people that bought a wii that took nintendo numbers to 100M are on their phones/tablets right now. All nintendo has going for it right now is its core fan base. The most die hard of the nintendo fans. We are almost hitting the 2yr mark for the LTD WiiU numbers, and even now it has not managed to push past 7M consoles sold. That tells you that "that core base" is nowhere near as big as some may have you believe. The only major nintendo title left to release is Zelda and maybe metroid. If those two titles combined do not push sales past 15M, then its safe to say nothing on the platform will do it. Looking at the WiiU now is the equivalent of looking at sony and saying "they have released every major franchise they have; infamous, LBP, killzone, GT, GOW, a japan studio project, a quantic dream project, two new studio projects and all that is left to release is Uncharted, and yet they have not sold more than 7M consoles worldwide, even though they are the cheapest console". Nintendo will be lucky if the break 25M. Look at what they have released so far and where they are at now, what game or combination of games is going to suddenly make them sell 18M units in the next 4yrs when at their current rate they are selling around 4M/yr.
