Ka-pi96 said:
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There's absolutely no chance of that happening. Sales across the board for consoles in Japan are horrendous. Even for ones with much more appeal to the Japanese consumer (compact, with an emphasis on mobile : such as Vita play, the WiiU tablet, etc). XB1 is massive with a huge power brick, it's going to go over like a lead balloon.
Localization costs many millions of dollars, and marketing/distribution/support will run those costs way up there. With Microsoft's management record, it would be unsurprising to see the costs running into at least the several hundred million range to just get it localized and in stores in Japan. How much do they make per unit @ $400? $20 or so?
Sales would have to be far beyond PS4+WiiU combined in Japan AND a ridiculous attach rate for years to come for XB1 to turn a profit from the effort.
I think it's idiotic, but I'm happy that it's happening because the numbers will be pure comedy gold. It will have a tiny launch bubble, then fall below 1k/week very quickly.
All one needs to do is look at the charts. Attractive Japanese IPs are available currently on :
PS3
WiiU
3DS
Vita
PSP
Guess where virtually ALL of the sales are? Mobile. And not by a small margin. The gap is HUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE. The only home console games which even crack respectable numbers are the big Wii/WiiU Nintendo IPs (Mario/Smash/Kart). MGS,:GZ, which was cheap and follows a massively successful series in Japan, has yet to crack 250k on PS3 (which has a huge install base there!). PS4? Don't make me laugh.
What does that tell you? Even consoles with many MANY millions in install base have been closeted and put away for the most part. Japanese gamers aren't buying games on home consoles in any serious numbers any more. It's 'uncool' in Japan now.
And what's incredibly uncool? A console of ludicrous boxy massive proportions that looks like a 1980s VCR.
I've been down this road before, when everyone pre-launch was convinced that XB1 was going to rule the world. Then when people were convinced that Titanfall would give MS the lead in the US, then when the $449 Bundle was announced it was going to change everything, etc. Every single time I've nailed it to the wall with reality. And this one is just the plainest/clearest yet.
There is literally nothing MS can do to make the XB1 a success in Japan. Whatever they're doing, what is it? 6 games? Quadruple that. Make it 24 games that you can only play on Japan XB1. It still won't sell. People don't want to pay 40,000 yen for a gigantic Microsoft box. The 360 burned the few Japanese buyers that gave them a chance last time, and this time the home market is a fraction of what it was.
The Vita alone is selling at a rate that basically amounts to PS4+WiiU COMBINED there, and the 3DS is well ahead of that.
It's going to be an absolutely beautiful bloodbath. There's not a .01% chance of success there. It's an absolutely guaranteed failure with the combo of :
40,000 yen
MASSIVE BOX
Microsoft brand
Non-mobile home console
