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Logic suggests things would have played out quite differently, since Sony and Nintendo would have made different games. Neither the PS3 as a Wii nor the Wii as a PS3 would have sold as well if made by the other company, because the PS3 and Wii both played to their respective companies strengths. The 360 likely would have won the generation by a small margin, but the gaming industry as a whole wouldn't have seen the growth that it did. Rather than 260+ million consoles being sold, I'd say it probably would've ended near 180 million. The handheld market might have even suffered a bit as well, since the Sony and Nintendo brands would be weaker.