Both MS and Sony can be winners if they both have good conferences. In most people's eyes Sony "won" last year's E3, but MS had a very good conference as well and showed a lot of great games. They did exactly what they needed to do after the May Reveal. I don't think too many people left that MS conference last year and wasn't impressed by what was shown.
Honestly, I don't think it's going to have that big of an impact in the overall race. Last year's E3 was extremely memorable, maybe the most memorable one ever, but how many people have vivid memories of what happened in the previous five E3's prior to that? I follow E3 every year, but I'm in the minority when it comes to my group of friends. Most of them just buy the console based on what each other has. Last gen we all got 360's because that came out first. This gen most of us have PS4's since it was cheaper and 3rd party games seem to perform on par, if not a little better than the X1.
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