Barring any surprise announcements for previously unknown projects currently in development, it's already known what platform will be presenting at E3.
As far as "winning" the conference, it will likely just come down to a matter of presentation; who puts on the better show and inflates interest in projects most already know about.
Regarding surprise announcements, not related to games in development or due to release this year, MS is positioned to drop the biggest news bomb or bombs due to the current market position of the XB1, which may or may not change significantly once the Kinect free SKU becomes available. Regardless, MS most likely has some big announcement to improve the fortune of the XB1 platform.
Not sure whether that would constitute "winning" as opposed to doing what must be done to stay competitive and increase unit sales to fall in line with pre-release expectations.
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