Why do people keep saying that the PS4 is doomed in Japan?

[VanceIX]

Smeags said:

VanceIX said:

You make a good point, but the Vita also had a pretty poor start (not quite as bad, but still relatively terrible), and now it's been picking up steam since developers are jumping on.

Japansese developers tend to stick with older consoles for the first year as a transition period, and then they start developing legitimately for newer consoles. 

Although, like you said, if major games like Final Fantasy XV and Kingdom Hearts III take too long it will be a lot harder to recover, but if the rumors are true and Final Fantasy XV comes out either this year or next, I think the PS4 could do just as well as the PS3 did.

Kinda random, but I did the numbers for what PS4 needs to achieve to reach ~10,000,000 sales (what PS3 has sold in Japan).

From here on out, it would have to sell 36,500 a week for 5 years, 30,500 a week for 6 years, or 26,100 a week for 7 years to reach that number.

All in all, I actually don't think that asking "Is Sony doomed in Japan?!" the right question (Not saying that you're asking that. It's fine to confront those who say that the system has no future this early on). I'm interested in knowing why Sony's focus on eastern support is so anemic. It was 3rd party developers, and not Sony, that have propped up the Vita into a niche but dependable portable we see today. I don't see the PS4 getting that sort of support that can come out consistently, and that's going to be a problem. Sony itself needs to develop titles that the Japanese consumer wants to play, but right now they're totally focused on the Western market. Obviously that's working out for them, with fantastic sales in Europe and NA, but I'm curious to see if they'll push to grab more of a mindshare in Japan as well.

Thanks for the numbers, puts things in better perspective.

Assuming Sony has plans for a 7-8 year generation, and Japanese support improves over the next year, it may yet be a success in Japan, maybe not as great as the PS3 and certainly not nearly as much as the PS2, but something solid nonetheless.