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Sharu said:

We now in the time of economic stagnations.

People who like Nintendo games are usually grown ups with a families/kids. Who have a lot of things to care and know what a liability is. So they unlikely to drop money for new game hardware in a hard times. Their support for the console will grow bigger since more games appealing to them will be out.

The 'core' auditory of PS4/X1 are gamefreaks who think only about new games. They easily bought the nextgen hype and now sitting with a mildly powerful machines with no new games to play, thats why they are so defensive on game forums. 

The winner of the generation will be the console which appeals not to small group of gaming fanatics (male, single, 16-32 years old, basement dweller) but to broader audience (as always). So we'll see how the things will turn out. But it seems to me this generation will not be an easy walk for anyone of a big three.

Your argument tends to fall apart when we consider the GC was how many years ago? This gen will be a cake walk for the PS4. It's really the only console out there with a main focus on gamers. I doubt we will see it do anywhere near PS2 figures, but that souly depends on the gaming industry. If they keep making the same games, then 80 mill lifetime. If they make good, different and revolutionary must-have games, then it has a chance of doing ps2 figures. But considering how PC gaming is overshadowing the consoles massively, it'll take some genius marketing and tech to pull it off.