I would agree with many that the PS3 lineup so far has the greater potential. However that lineup has two potential problems. The first problem is whether Sony can contribute enough games to maintain that margin. The second is the release rate and or delivery.
Sony suffered a real loss in developer confidence last year. With its weak PS3 sales, larger development costs, and poor software attach rate. The logical conclusion is that they may have much fewer exclusives to announce. Unless Sony dug deep in their pockets, and bought the exclusive difference that most likely exists. They are not so far ahead that a few late announcements from the other camps can't outshine them. Once again Microsoft and Nintendo have been far too quiet on their second half lineups for this year.
Sony really has a issue with delivery. Many have pointed out the chronic game delays that plague the system, but worse then that they arrive in starts and stops. You have two or three great games show in a month, but equally you end up waiting months for anything else to hit the console of a high caliber. Ask any PS3 owner about the dry spells. Then consider how comfortable developers are with the high competition. When everyone hits the market at the same time. The more delays there are. The more likely games even if they are ready will be delayed so as not to be overshadowed.
Microsoft isn't much better on delivery the release lists do not generate confidence. Nobody knows what is going to show up when. Even more damning is how very little we know about their first party development, or even first party plans. Your hard pressed to say anything when your monumentally ignorant.
Nintendo worries me a lot with their rehashing. Every game rumored to be coming down the pipe is basically a rehash of the same game that was on the cube, or a rehash all the way back to the 64. This is worrisome that Nintendo isn't going to evolve their offerings as much as they are just going to polish and do minor tweaks of previous offerings.
I freely admit that Mariokart for the Wii gives me trepidations while it is one of my favorite games of all time. Double Dash upset me greatly. The game was almost a carbon copy of the previous title. The title was less a expansion of the premise, and more of a tweak to the formula. I think it is only a matter of time before Nintendo rightly so gets dead panned for repeating themselves. More to the point consumers might just buy the previous offering on the Virtual Console, and save the money.







