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makingmusic476 said:
HappySqurriel said:

The PS3 line-up looks very strong but there is nothing saying that all of those games will be released in 2008 or that Nintendo/Microsoft won't have several games to announce for the second half of 2008 ...

The same could be said in reverse.  :|


It can be but I think that there are reasons to be optimistic about the Wii's second half line-up. From another post of mine:

Number of Nintendo published games released for the Wii in 2007: 14
Number of Nintendo published games released so far in 2008: 2

NameRelease Date
Mario Kart Wii(April 27, 2008)
Wii Fit(May 19, 2008)
Animal Crossing Wii(TBA 2008)
Disaster: Day of Crisis (TBA 2008)
Wii Music (TBA 2008)

Number of Sony published games released for the PS3 in 2007: 11
Number of Sony published games released so far in 2008: 1

NameRelease Date
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue(April 15, 2008)
SingStar(June 3, 2008)
Killzone 2(September 2008)
LittleBigPlanet(September 2008)
Free Realms  (Q3 2008)
Gran Turismo 5  (Q4 2008)
Agency, The(TBA 2008)
Dark Mist(TBA 2008)
DC Universe(TBA 2008)
Echochrome(TBA 2008)
Eight Days(TBA 2008)
Ember(TBA 2008)
Eyedentify(TBA 2008)
flOwer(TBA 2008)
Getaway(TBA 2008)
Infamous(TBA 2008)
Jak and Daxter: The Lost Frontier(TBA 2008)
MotorStorm 2(TBA 2008)
Skyblue(TBA 2008)
SOCOM: Confrontation(TBA 2008)
Warhawk -- Operation: Broken Mirror(TBA 2008)
White Knight Chronicles(TBA 2008)
WipEout HD(TBA 2008)

Is it possible that Sony will release (over) twice as many first party games in 2008 than they did in 2007, while Nintendo will release half as many games in 2008 than they did in 2007? Yes, but it is amazingly unlikely ... A realistic estimate for both publishers would be 12 to 18 games released in 2008, which means that Nintendo has yet to announce 5 to 11 games which will be released in 2008 and Sony will likely delay 6 to 12 of their games.

At the same time, a small shift in third party support can have a huge impact. Suppose:

  • Two high profile exclusive PS3 games are delayed
  • Two high profile exclusive PS3 games become multiplatform
  • Two high profile multiplatform games are not released on the PS3
  • Two high profile PS3 games underperform (in terms of sales and quality)
  • Two new high profile exclusive games are announced for the Wii
  • Two existing Wii exclusive games overperform
  • Two previously announced games are ported to the Wii

Now, with the current state of the market this is not an impossible situation; it may not happen, but if it did the "amazing" PS3 line-up would not look so great, and the Wii line-up would look noticeably better ...