I think 40 mil would require a hell of a lot of luck, but if we're talking luck, it could go even higher. The way I see it, the only way Wii U sees N64 like sales is if they never fuck up anything from here on out, and on top of that, come up with the ultimate system seller. Not some gimmick to appeal to casuals like Wii Sports, that'll never happen again. I mean something that people will NEED to experience, because it's just that good of a game. If every single rumor about Zelda U came true, and it's indeed a graphically intense, GTA sized budgeted, 150+ hours of content, franchise redefining, GTA/COD level overhyped, ultimate masterpiece of a game (and especially if it does all this while also magically releasing this year like some people think it will), then Zelda U could be that game. Short of that, I don't think Nintendo has anything up their sleeve that could push Wii U all that high. It needs something that pushes systems like nothing else in history. What is the likelihood of all this? Pretty close to 0%, but you did say best case scenario, and talked about luck, so...yeah, I feel like this speculative scenario is fair as any other in this thread.
As for something realistic? Even ioi himself has said that Wii U could sell 20+mil, so I think all the people saying 15 tops need to simmer down on the doomsaying a bit.
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