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I have no idea what VGC is doing with the 3DS number.  There were obvious issues with it at the end of last year.  The ship/sold gap in Japan was larger than the overall gap WW, and that still doesn't seem to be fixed.  Now WW sales are ~520k higher than shipments.  Even with the paltry shipment in Japan this past quarter there are still 480k in the channel there.

Even if there are only 500k in the channel in the west, we are still looking at ~1.5m overtracked.