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I have no idea why he is qualified to talk about market situation in China, but to someone like me that has no idea about Chinese people and market situation there, those seem like valid points of concern.
But I'm sure that Microsoft has done extensive research, and are not going into this on blind faith like they did last year under Mattrick.
I also believe that they don't expect to sell millions just based on population, and that they are expecting more to replicate German than UK numbers.

So, even though those points seem to point toward mediocrity or failure, we all will be much wiser come September.