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snowdog on 28 April 2014
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freedquaker said:
snowdog said:
I can't see the Xbox One selling anywhere close to that amount unless they have a drastic price cut or they have some HUUUUUGE Megatons prepared for E3.

The One is in SERIOUS trouble at the moment, it hasn't done a great deal better than the Wii U this time last year and it's only a matter of months before the PS4 has twice the installed userbase of the One which will probably mean that PS4 SKUs are going to sell twice as much.

I do see what you're coming from, and in case of a bad scenario, let's see what may happen...

a) XB1 has sold around 4.4 million as of now, right? This includes 1.3 million or so this year. There is no way XB1 will sell less than this untill the Xmas period. So the worst possible scenario before the last quarter is that XB1 will be around 6 million by the beginning of Xmas.

b)Xmas time is a hectic period especially in English speaking Countries like US, Canada, and UK. The historical sales ratio, regardless of which year you take as an anchor will put XB1 at a minimum of 7.5-8 million at the year end.

So you may consider the lower end of the XB1 estimate to be more accurate, but not much more. PS4 will be roughly double the XB1 numbers at the end of 2014.

I believe that the One is overtracked on here. It's sold 4.2m at the most, there are even a few people that don't believe it's sold over 4m. The silence from Microsoft is speaking volumes at the moment.

Publishers aren't interested in shipment figures, it's the number of consoles in homes that matter...and of course software sales. It's only a matter of months before the PS4 has twice the installed userbase unless Microsoft do something drastic. Perhaps a price cut so that it matches the PS4 will get it out of trouble, announced at E3. It's definitely too expensive.