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Success for whom? Microsoft or Rockstar?

I imagine as long as the game sells over 5 million copies, it will turn a profit for the company, regardless of the console. But if it sells anything under 7-8 million, it will be considered a disappointment based on the sales of GTA3/VC/SA.

As for Microsoft, this is a PS established franchise. If you believe, as I do, that each 360 sold likely means that a PS3 was not, being able to take 1/3 of overall sales should put a chink in Sony's base, but I don't think they'll be happy unless they get over 40, maybe 50%.If they can hit 2/3, they'll be dancing in the streets, and Sony reps will be walking ledges.