Scoobes said:
PS4 is selling at just under 1 million a month depending on production. Compared to 2007 it's pretty good. The Wii was doing similar numbers to PS4 whilst X1 and WiiU combined are doing similar number to PS3 and 360 in 2007. If the trend continues for the rest of the year then we'll see a similar YOY growth rate to that in 2006-2007 (so around 32 million home consoles by the end of the year). This is not including the effects exclusives and game releases may or may not have to each consoles sales vs 2007. I honestly see this gen selling a lot better than last gen in the long-term. For one thing I see Sony and Microsoft supporting this gen for as long as possible like they did last gen. If that's the case then PS4 could see strong sales in its 4th-6th years unlike the Wii did last gen where Nintendo effectively stopped supporting it in terms of software after the fourth year on market. With X1 on course to outsell 360, this gen is still poised to grow. Secondly, we have emerging markets which will slowly grow in significance as time goes on. Then we also have micro (Android) consoles cropping up. Any of them could potentially expand the console market well beyond the current 3 company dogma. |
If you acknowledge this year will account for 32M consoles, which is far less than in 2007 (14M difference, it seems) then you must admit that the market is shrinking.
When you separate the values, you incur in a lot of fallacies. Now you are considering the Wii's premature death and disregarding the fact that PS3 and X360 improved their sales because of that. You think PS4 and X1 will present the same behaviour and, once they will be the market leaders, they will make the market to grow. That's insane. You can't pull clients out of thin air. Look at the aggregated values and see what's trully happening...or learn it the hard way as time goes by.
Emerging markets will grow, that's true, but they still won't be significant in this generation. And the general consumer's migration out of the console market may largely surpass that trend.
I don't want to consider "micro consoles" dominated by trash software as consoles. This videogame console market that we love is shrinking, that's all.
Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 100M XOne: 70M WiiU: 25M
Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 100M XOne: 50M WiiU: 18M
Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 90M XOne: 40M WiiU: 15M Switch: 20M
Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 110M XOne: 50M WiiU: 14M Switch: 65M