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Probably Halo 2. Microsoft is in a much more desperate situation as of right now, and they'll most likely bundle the shit out of it with the console, ala Titanfall.

Sony on the other hand, will most likely just release The Last of Us knowing it will sell well enough to make a profit. It'll give a boost to the PS4 hardware sales, but not a very big one. Maybe we'll see bundles of TLOU and PS4 later on, but I highly doubt when it launches like Halo 2 will.

So my answer is Halo 2, and not by a fluke ^^