It depends on a lot of factors:
- Success of Steam box. If the Steam box becomes a success, or another competitor, MS and Sony will act sooner to counter act.
- 4K tv adoption, BI intelligence predicts this to be 50% in 2024. 20% in 2020, enough to play a factor.
- Success of VR. PS4 and XB1 are too weak to comfortably do 3D 1080p60 at the level of graphics we're already getting used too. Plus a 4K based VR set is only a matter of time. Streaming VR content is a no go, any lag in VR will kill it.
Nintendo will most likely act first. A new console in 2018. Will they dare to bring out Mario VR, or stick to focussing on co-op experiences.
MS will probably bring out a cheap small disc less XBox One in 2018 and focus on streaming. With their success mainly in UK and USA, a cheap all digital Cloud box is pretty likely. They might up the specs a little bit, DDR4 and HDMI 2.0, but will be fully backwards compatible with downloadable XB1 software.
Sony will stick to physical next to digital, launch in 2020, show off its 4K capabilities and their next 4K VR headset.







