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I think this Christmas Wii U will have a good chance of selling.
Smash out in 2015, MK May ...
For November / December I think Nintendo will release a game that will announce at E3, and should help you sell.
But I think the main reason will be another.
The Wii (not U) continues to sell a lot at Christmas, sell 340,000 in week before chrismas 2012, and 120,000 chrismas before 2013.
I think that the Wii this Chrismas will sold maximum 50,000, and The those who do not buy Wii will Wii U.
So, for me Wii U will sold 400/500 k the week before chrismas of 2014.