The smart thing to do would be HD upgrades of Shenmue 1 and 2 first. I don't know the first thing about the franchise and there's no way I'd get into it at the 3rd game. But I'd give the first game a go. Though obviously if it's Xb one exclusive then it's a moot point.
I would say though, if Shenmue is the game MS is banking on to become a relevant console in Japan, they are deluding themselves. In fact if Sega wants to make money from Shenmue then they need to release the HD collection of 1 and 2 on all platforms (including PC) and do the same with Shenmue 3. Otherwise I hope they get paid a lot from MS to make it a Xb one exclusive. If Shenmue is released on its own as a Xb one exclusive I can see it selling about 250K in total, and that's only if it releases once Xb one has a user base in Japan of 2-300K.
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