For the vista, I think it will be last, the sales are so low in EU/US that it's really dying. I can't see Sony or any major 3rd focusing on it. But with a 2~4 millions lead, it will take years. It's just so hard for the wii U or xbox to sell 1 million console, it takes 4~10 months, and it takes a hell lot more to outsell for 1 million another console.
I think Xbox 1 will not pass the U (or very late). We are currently 2 weeks away from the massive launch of the exclusive Titanfall, with stockpile to sell, bargains, advantage in the US, and the xbox 1 only manages to sell 90K. So it's potential average sale outside the current multiple effects could be as low as 50K/week, and probably not higher than 65K. On the contrary the Wii U at its lowest with 40K sales is still waiting for MK8 and other strong legged sellers, so it could go up to 50~60K. Nintendo should slightly outsell for Christmas, making up some of the difference. A 20K difference means it would take 2 years for the Xbox 1 to pass the Wii U. a 10K difference takes 4 years. If both just outsell temporary for major launches, it will take forever.
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