I haven't taken the time to crunch the numbers but it looks to me like the 360's current advantage is too great for the PS3 to eclipse the 360's install base that early. By the time the 360 hits 25 million, the PS3 will likely be closer to 20 million than 25.
The current advantage is at 6.72 million units for the 360, going by the numbers here on VG Chartz. The PS3 looks like it'll chip away a good chunk of that this year and I think the PS3 will be around 20 million sold by the end of the 2008 holiday season but that the 360 will likely be around 24 million by that time.
Of course, all of this is assuming that the PS3 maintains strong sales in America - not necessarily outselling the 360 here but at least keeping pace to some extent.
First to 30 or 35 million? Sure, that's entirely possible. First to 25 million? Not a chance.
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