http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=17952
“It appears that once hardware supply was sufficient to satisfy demand, gift givers tended to purchase hardware when it was convenient, causing a market share shift from destination specialty retailers in favor of more frequently visited mass merchants,” said Pachter.
“We expect a repeat of the 2002 phenomenon in 2008,” Pachter continued. “We expect hardware sales to be flat to slightly negative for the industry in 2008, with dramatic increases in Wii and PS3 dollar sales offset in full by dollar sales declines for the PS2, PSP, DS and Xbox 360. We expect overall Wii and PS3 dollar sales to grow by approximately $400 million per console in the U.S., but expect the other consoles to decline by around the same amount. At the same time, we expect the Wii supply situation to increase by 150,000 per month, on average, with allocations of hardware favoring the mass merchants once supply and demand are in balance. We expect the first glimpse of this allocation shift to occur on May 19, when Nintendo launches Wii Fit.”
“This device is not aimed at hardcore gamers, but is instead intended for more casual (and out-of-shape) consumers,” said Pachter. “We have learned that Nintendo of America intends to support the Wii Fit launch with the biggest marketing campaign in its history, and believe it is unlikely that such a large marketing campaign is intended to disproportionately benefit GameStop. Rather, we think that the Nintendo campaign is likely to feature key retail partners such as Target and Best Buy, notorious for attracting so-called ‘couch potatoes’.”
