I don't see anyway MS doesn't loose a massive amount of their install base. In Europe, they did around 25 million with the X360 based on a lower price, better press, and having 18 months to themselves. The PS3 still caught up and outsold them there. I fully expect the X1's European install base to shrink massively. Outside the UK, it'll be largely irrelevant. 10-15 million overall at best.
In NA, as a best case scenario they'll keep up with the PS4. This will still represent a massive loose of install base (unless you think both consoles can sell 45 million units this gen in NA). More than likely, let's be generous and say they do 30 million each, that's a shrink of 15+ for Xbox. Outside of that, let's say it does 5 million or so in other territories. 40 million or so is MS' best case scenario (again, only if they're able to keep up with PS4 in NA).
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