To answer my own questions
1. By holiday 2014
2. No. Peak sales will happen about 2-3 years from now. Too early to make a judgment.
3. No. Big picture: they're doing their best to increase supply. They want as many people on their platform as early as possible. But they are being strategic with their timing.
4. Not necessarily -- but they have a strategic supply plan to keep the price they have through 2014.
5. In the short term: absolutely yes. They love to eat MS and Nintendo's lunch whenever possible. Their fans do too. With or without Infamous/Watch Dogs, they'd release a larger than normal shipment the week of Titanfall/Mario Kart 8.
I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016