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PenguinZ said:
If Halo drops this year, the One will probably win the US this year.

I don't think so, unless they have been working on it a loooooooooong time already (doubtful).

Halo 1, 2, and 3 were made by Bungie. 4 and (presumably '5') are 343 Studios.

I don't doubt that 343 can make a decent game, but I don't think they can rush development enough to get the new one out by this fall. If they do, the quality may suffer. Better for Halo fans to have it be an epic game for 2015, as that will probably fold in with the 2nd round price drops as well, and for it to be a 10/10 kind of experience rather than a rushed mediocre game. The last we want is to feel like they're just cashing a check. Attachment rate wise, Halo 1 and 2 were hands-down the kings of the series, genuinely 'system sellers', while Halo 3 sold higher numbers (but to a lower % of 360 owners). The post Halo 3 releases have seen LTD numbers that are a bit less than 3, and as far as % of 360 owners than bought them, exponentially less than 1 and 2 were.

A lot of this can probably be traced to COD taking the bulk of the FPS genre sales from Halo. To put a bullet on it, Blops2 sold more in 2 weeks than Halo 4 has since it's release (and very nearly as much in the first week alone). And that's only counting sales on the 360 itself.

I think it will take something incredible to get Halo back on top, and it will need to have the right budget and time to get there.