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Do what Dolla Dolla said and hold out for a while and see whether the 60gb is real.

There are a few factors to take into consideration like the fact that the 360 games take up hardly any space compared to the PS3. However, you can download original Xbox games off of Xbox Live, and they can get quite big. Also, if you're looking for HDMI, then you'd be a fan of HD content, HD movies can be as big a 7-8gb off XBL.

Also bearing in mind that with the 20gb model, you don't actually get the 20gb model. Everybody I know of who has the 20gb HDD (including myself) can only use 13gb of it. The other 7gb is already being used up by something.

You can always buy an arcade, in which you'll get a free 256mb memory stick. Pick up a HDD later when you're ready to go online - and the HDD addon may have came down in price. (if, of course, you're not planning on getting live straight away).