Reasonable said:
Dodece said:
I think many of my fellow posters are confused Microsoft isn't trying to take a lead they are trying to maintain a lead, and more specifically expand their lead. The difference in the other regions is 1,500,000. The difference between console sales last week was 20,000 units. This Microsoft is doomed gibberish is most definitely premature. You cannot reverse the positions to serve your purposes. Were the sales to remain stagnant at last weeks level Sony would still be a year and a half behind.
Have no illusions about this situation Sony is still the third place challenger. Sony is not laying anything remotely close to a beat down on anyone. Nintendo however is laying a beat down on Sony. With a 2,650,000 unit lead as we speak, and is outselling the PS3. Nintendo has truncated both Microsoft's and Sony's potential exploitable market. Now Microsoft has made their console substantially cheaper. They have a larger market to exploit, and they still have a lead over Sony in their hip pocket.
I think we often forget there is a little console on the market by the name of PS2. This console still has a lot to teach us, and the lesson is this. Good enough and cheap enough are very important to consumers. They are part of the decision making process. The machine is outdated in every sense of the word. Yet it is still hanging in with the new kids on the block.
Honestly this isn't last years PS3 price drop fiasco. There was a plethora of consumers that did want the machine, but the price had curbed their enthusiasm. They wanted it, but wouldn't pay that much to have it. So they were biding their time for a price cut which was predicted, leaked, and obviously necessary. The price on the 360 hasn't hindered purchases to quite that extent. The PS3 had built up a log jam or anxious consumers. That is part of why the console had such extreme spikes. The 360 is attracting an undetermined market, or convincing mild enthusiasts.
A forty percent increase on the first week is actually a very nice increase. That would have been the increase Sony would have seen last year had its consoles price not discouraged consumers from buying in when they initially had wanted to. Microsoft seems to have been very effective with positioning. They are exiting a price plateau before they exhaust it, and entering newer plateaus at the right points.
The real questions are this. What effect did predicted price drops, and leaked information effect the previous weeks 360 sales. Will the cheaper 360 drive sales away from the PS3 or even the Wii. Will this price cut be as effective as Microsoft's previous price cut. How effective will Grand Theft Auto and this new price be for Microsoft.
Also for those that do not realize Easter is this Sunday. The strange date is having unanticipated consequences on the market. This year it really is a creeper holiday. So this upcoming weeks sales should be oddly spectacular. I think the charts are going to be insane next week as the unwary get cold cocked by the holiday sneaking up on them. What does anyone else think about this. Will the early arrival hurt sales, or drive guilt based spending.
Out of curiosity are Europeans more or less prone to buy big ticket items for the holiday. Where I live we usually didn't have major presents for Easter. Just a basket of candy a couple little toys, and a huge meal. I love Easter I am going to make a glutton of myself on Sunday. We are having ham. I really do love ham.
|
Interesting read, although I have a different view on some of your points. I could be wrong but I don't expect many people to rush out at Easter and buy a games console (that would be Christmas) - so in Europe I don't expect to see any crazy sales. If anything Easter might hurt sales as a lot of people head away for the weekend and drag the kids with them. Also, without a major game dropping (there isn't one is there or have I missed something?) I see little to drive a big spike. As for 360 I personally don't judge it as having a true lead on PS3 at all. It just released first... but time adjusted they're tracking the same. From retail / game sales point of view this is how items of merchandise are normally viewed. You don't say hey, that Panasonic sells way better than that Samsung if it released a year earlier and time adjusted their sales are equal - you normally decide they have same sales profile and expect the Samsung to track the Panasonic. The only console with a true lead this generation at the moment is the Wii as from the get go it has outperformed PS3 and 360. The test of this is to look at their sales assuming they all launched at same time - PS3 and 360 lines are right in line with Wii shooting up away from both like a rocket. That's why so many analysts etc. are sounding negative about the 360 - the numbers show it has no 'true' lead over PS3 simply an earlier release - i.e. assuming nothing changes and they both have a 6 year lifespan (meaning PS3 gains extra year of sales at end over 360) their lifetime sales would be essentially equal. The other reason you see so much negative press for 360 in Others is that its additional lifetime sales have not put so much distance between it and PS3 as they have in US. Using this sites numbers in US PS3 has roughly 50% of sales units 360 has, in Others it already has 80% of sales units of 360 (and remember the PS3 released later in Others so that ratio is even more daming as it shows the PS3 has made up the time lead pretty smartly in Others vs US). I believe that no matter what price the 360 is parents wanting something like the Wii aren't going to go "hey, let's get this cheaper console - there's no Mario, etc. but I'm sure the kids will be fine playing Gears of War and Bioshock". The PS3 and 360 are fighting for roughly the same demographic right now although the PS3 has some chance of getting more general gamers on brand and as its library builds - 360 I believe is still seen squarely as console for hardcore FPS / online crowd despite the fact it has a varied library of games and has little chance of taking any sales from Wii whether its cheaper or not. |
