Hawk said:
First, your theory an HD Wii may be coming out earlier than the normal generational gap. I don't think there is any reason to think that actually. I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility, but I've never subscribed to the constant arguements several people have said "HD will be the determinant in console purchases here, anytime now,....anytime now....I promise, eventually". Wii has been against two HD consoles the entire time. And plenty of us HD TV owners, still bought a Wii even though we had an HD TV first. I just don't personally think there is a reason to think a new version of Wii will come out very soon, simply because it's the least powerful console. You are absolutely right that it's pretty staggering to look at the total sales of the PS1 and PS2. They are definitely king in home consoles. I think you are downplaying the Wii though, in saying it SHOULD pass Nintendo best historical efforts. The Wii has sold more at the 16 month mark than ANY console in history has, INCLUDING portable systems. I don't personally know, or have the most faith in it keeping up the sales rate. It would be amazing to keep it up. But....the Wii, very well could outsell both the PS1 and PS2 lifetime sales in it's lifetime. Though, that doesn't take away from Sony having done amazing with the PS1 and PS2, or from them doing pretty good right now. |
Totally welcome... And I tend to agree with you that Nintendo doesn't really need an "HD Wii"... I was merely pointing out that they are cash rich due to their success and would have the ability to do something new (sooner) if they so desired. And if they do, I don't think that should take away from, or cause people not to continue to count Wii sales.
I can't really imagine a scenario where the Wii doesn't top the NES's 61 million. But even with it's phenomenal success, that is still a high bar... Again, I'm pretty certain it will get there. Will it get to the 100 million of the PS1 or 120 mill of the PS2 or Gameboy? Quite possibly.
To do that though, it will need longevity. I'm not sure if Nintendo built that type of longevity into the machine... They sure didn't need to! It is already a huge success and has been making money for them from day 1.
The Sony products (on the other hand), need that type of longevity. Because of their different strategy, they NEED the console to last to make up for the losses they have built into it intially. So far, it seems that both Nintendo's and Sony's strategies seem to work well for them.
If the Wii does surpass the PS1 and PS2 numbers, I think that is huge and it does take away from the PS1/PS2... It knocks them off the block. But there's LOTS of sales to go before this happens.
DKII said:
Anyone buying a PS2 now and not intending to buy another console for another 5 years will have no impact on the current market, because in 5 years there will be only one system left selling and the next generation of consoles will be out. They're effectively removing themselves from the console war, so there's no point in really looking at them in terms of how it might affect Wii, PS3, 360. It's like saying oh look the SNES is still selling all those people are gonna get N64's in a few years and it'll make a comeback! Except the N64 had already lost by then so they all got PS1's instead.
So sales five years from now will not count either (be it the Wii, 360, PS3 or PS2)?
Maybe we have a different way of looking at things...
If after 10 years, the Wii has sold 89 million and the PS3 has sold 111 million, then did the PS3 win? I'm assuming that your answer is, "Not if the Wii has a new console by then". So your definition seems to allow for winning by quitting while you're ahead.
In this scenario, Microsoft could have called it quits right before the Wii surpassed it, and called it a win for the 360.
I think the issue here is that you may actually be looking to claim a "winner". When there isn't always a clear winner. If you look at things in small snap-shots, you may see one thing... If you look at things over time, you may see another thing...
...and if you add in handhelds, you may see yet another.
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